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  • Writer's pictureSarah McKee

Economist Predictions for the 2024 Housing Market


After two years of declining sales, including an 18% dip in 2023, experts are predicting improved sales in 2024.



The Chief Economist for The National Association of REALTORS®, Lawrence Yun, joined other leading housing analysts Tuesday at NAR’s virtual Real Estate Forecast Summit to discuss sales projections heading into 2024—and the experts agreed that better days are ahead for the real estate market.


Mortgage rates likely have peaked and are now steadily falling from their recent high of nearly 8% in October, improving housing affordability and enticing more home buyers to return to the market.

Economists predict rates will remain below 7% in 2024, but none predict a drop below 6%. NAR predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.3% in 2024.

NAR’s data shows that rates near 6.6% enable the average American family to afford a median-priced home without devoting more than 30% of their income to housing, the threshold commonly used to measure affordability.


Regarding affordability, economists don't expect to see drastic changes in pricing.

NAR is projecting that existing-home sales will rise 13.5% and new-home sales—which are up about 5% this year, defying market trends—could increase another 19% by the end of next year.


 

While inflation is an outlying issue that may derail these optimistic forecasts, economists anticipate a more robust market in 2024.

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